Year Old
What is the probability that an 80 year old person will live at least another 5 years?
A 75 year old person has a 50 % chance of living at least another 10 years.
A 75 year old person has a 20% chance of living at least another 15 years.
An 80 year old person has a 25 % chance of living at least another 10 years.
What is the probability that an 80 year old person will live at least another 5 years?
Please show clear full solution.
One must first live to be 75 before reaching 80 or 85, so the question is equivalent to this: What is the probability that a 75-year-old lives to 85 given that he or she lives to 80?
Let P(n) be the probability of a 75-year-old reaching age n.
P(90 | 80) = 0.25
P(90) / P(80) = 0.25
0.20 / P(80) = 0.25
P(80) = 0.20 / 0.25 = 0.80
P(85 | 80) = P(85) / P(80) = 0.50 / 0.80 = 5/8
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February 20, 2012 3:36 pm 
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